Global productivity : trends, drivers, and policies

Cover.
Half Title.
Title.
Copyright.
Summary of Contents.
Contents.
Foreword.
Acknowledgments.
Authors.
Abbreviations.
Introduction.
Motivation.
Key findings and policy messages.
Implications of COVID-19 for productivity.
Synopsis.
Future research directions.
References.
PART I: Productivity: Trends and Explanations.
Chapter 1 Global Productivity Trends.
Introduction.
Evolution of productivity.
Sources of the slowdown in labor productivity growth after the GFC.
Drivers of productivity growth synchronization.
Conclusion.
Annex 1A: Cyclical and technology-driven labor productivity developments.
References.
Chapter 2 What Explains Productivity Growth.
Introduction.
Long-run drivers.
Summary of stylized facts.
Analyzing the effects of drivers.
Developments in drivers of productivity.
Outlook.
Policy priorities.
Conclusion.
Annex 2A: Partial correlations.
Annex 2B: Long-run regressions.
References.
Chapter 3 What Happens to Productivity during Major Adverse Events.
Introduction.
Adverse events: Literature and stylized facts.
Measuring the impact of adverse events on productivity.
What policies can mitigate the effects of adverse events?.
Conclusion.
Annex 3A: Data, sources, and definitions.
Annex 3B: Robustness.
Annex 3C: Methodology.
References.
Chapter 4 Productivity Convergence: Is Anyone Catching Up?.
Introduction.
How has productivity convergence evolved?.
Testing for convergence and its pace.
Convergence clubs.
Conclusion and policy implications.
Annex 4A: Solow-Swan growth model.
Annex 4B: Data.
Annex 4C: Beta-convergence testing.
Annex 4D: Estimating convergence clubs: Commonalities in productivity levels.
Annex 4E: Convergence clubs with common productivity trajectories.
Annex 4F: Productivity measurement: PPP vs. market exchange rates.
References.
PART II: Regional Dimensions of Productivity.
Chapter 5 Regional Productivity: Trends, Explanations, and Policies.
Introduction.
Evolution of productivity across regions.
Sources of, and bottlenecks to, regional productivity growth.
East Asia and Pacific.
Europe and Central Asia.
Latin America and the Caribbean.
Middle East and North Africa.
South Asia.
Sub-Saharan Africa.
Conclusion.
References.
PART III: Technological Change and Sectoral Shifts.
Chapter 6 Productivity: Technology, Demand, and Employment Trade-Offs.
Introduction.
Drivers of productivity: Technology vs. demand shocks.
Effects of technology shocks.
Effects of demand shocks.
Conclusion and policy implications.
Annex 6A: SVAR identification of technology drivers of productivity.
Annex 6B: Commodity-driven productivity developments.
Annex 6C: Commodity-driven productivity developments: Methodology.
References.
Chapter 7 Sectoral Sources of Productivity Growth.
Introduction.
Sectoral productivity gaps.
Sectoral productivity growth.
Policy implications.
Annex 7A: Data and methodology.
Annex 7B: Marginal productivity gap.
Annex 7C: Firm TFP data, estimates, and methodology.
References.
Boxes.
Box 1.1 Productivity: Conceptual considerations and measurement challenges.
Box 2.1 Review of recent firm-level total factor productivity literature.
Box 3.1 How do epidemics affect productivity?.
Box 6.1 Do productivity-enhancing improvements in technology threaten jobs?.
Box 7.1 Patterns of total factor productivity: A firm-level perspective.
Figures.
Figure 1 Productivity.
Figure 2 Productivity trends.
Figure 3 Productivity growth performance and initial conditions.
Figure 4 Productivity after major adverse events.
Figure 5 Unconditional, conditional, and club productivity convergence.
Figure 6 Regional productivity developments.
Figure 7 Employment and technological change.
Figure 8 Sectoral productivity developments.
Figure 1.1 Evolution of global productivity growth.
Figure 1.2 Poverty, productivity, and missed opportunities.
Figure 1.3 Growth accounting decomposition.
Figure B1.1.1 Labor productivity decomposition and natural capital in EMDEs.
Figure 1.4 Sectoral contributions to the postcrisis productivity slowdown.
Figure 1.5 Role of cyclical factors in the GFC productivity slowdown.
Figure 1.6 Synchronization of productivity measures: 10-year rolling correlations.
Figure 1.7 Synchronization of productivity measures: Five-year rolling correlations.
Figure 2.1 Innovation.
Figure 2.2 Education.
Figure 2.3 Health and demography.
Figure 2.4 Institutional quality and price stability.
Figure 2.5 Income and gender equality.
Figure 2.6 Trade and foreign direct investment.
Figure 2.7 Urbanization and financial development.
Figure 2.8 Productivity growth performance and key initial conditions.
Figure 2.9 Impact of drivers on productivity growth.
Figure 2.10 Pre-GFC developments in productivity drivers and productivity growth.
Figure 2.11 Post-GFC slowdown of the drivers of productivity growth.
Figure 2.12 EMDE infrastructure and education gaps.
Figure 2.13 Developments in financial and government technology.
Figure 2.14 Effects of reforms in EMDEs.
Figure 3.1 Global occurrence of major adverse events, 1960-2018.
Figure 3.2 Episodes of natural disaster.
Figure 3.3 Correlations between natural disaster frequency and productivity growth.
Figure B3.1.1 Severity of pandemics, epidemics, and climate disasters.
Figure B3.1.2 Severe disasters and productivity.
Figure B3.1.3 Impact of epidemics.
Figure 3.4 Episodes of war.
Figure 3.5 Correlations between war frequency and productivity growth.
Figure 3.6 Episodes of financial crisis.
Figure 3.7 Correlations between financial crisis frequency and productivity growth.
Figure 3.8 Episodes across different types of events.
Figure 3.9 Estimated effects of natural disaster episodes on productivity.
Figure 3.10 Estimated effects of war episodes on productivity in EMDEs.
Figure 3.11 Estimated effects of financial crisis episodes on labor productivity.
Figure 3.12 Comparison of estimated effects in EMDEs.
Figure 3.13 Productivity loss in EMDEs, scaled by event frequency.
Figure 3.14 Productivity loss, taking account of fiscal space in EMDEs.
Figure 3A.1 Time series of number of occurrences, by income group.
Figure 4.1 Labor productivity gaps.
Figure 4.2 Evolution of labor productivity gaps.
Figure 4.3 Conditional and unconditional convergence.
Figure 4.4 Convergence club memberships.
Figure 4.5 Convergence clubs of productivity trajectories.
Figure 4.6 Key characteristics of convergence clubs.
Figure 4.7 Characteristics associated with convergence club membership.
Figure 4.8 Characteristics of EMDEs transitioning to the highest convergence club.
Figure 4.9 Covariates of EMDEs joining top-tier convergence club.
Figure 4D.1 Convergence clubs at specific points in time.
Figure 4D.2 Characteristics of convergence clubs (mixture model).
Figure 4F.1 PPP-adjusted productivity gaps.
Figure 4F.2 PPP-adjusted growth differentials.
Figure 5.1 Evolution of regional productivity in EMDE regions.
Figure 5.2 Sectoral contributions to regional productivity growth in EMDE regions.
Figure 5.3 Potential bottlenecks to productivity growth in EMDE regions.
Figure 5.4 Productivity in EAP in regional comparison.
Figure 5.5 Evolution of productivity in EAP.
Figure 5.6 Factors underlying productivity growth in EAP.
Figure 5.7 Drivers of productivity growth in EAP.
Figure 5.8 Prospects for productivity growth in EAP.
Figure 5.9 Productivity in ECA in regional comparison.
Figure 5.10 Evolution of productivity in ECA.
Figure 5.11 Factors supporting productivity growth in ECA.
Figure 5.12 Drivers of productivity growth in ECA in regional comparison.
Figure 5.13 Drivers of productivity growth in ECA.
Figure 5.14 Productivity in LAC in regional comparison.
Figure 5.15 Evolution of labor productivity growth in LAC.
Figure 5.16 Sources of productivity growth in LAC.
Figure 5.17 Sectoral productivity in LAC.
Figure 5.18 Drivers of productivity growth in LAC in regional comparison.
Figure 5.19 Drivers of productivity growth in LAC.
Figure 5.20 Productivity in MNA in regional comparison.
Figure 5.21 Evolution of labor productivity growth in MNA.
Figure 5.22 Factors supporting productivity growth in MNA.
Figure 5.23 Policy challenges in MNA.
Figure 5.24 Evolution of productivity growth in SAR.
Figure 5.25 Sectoral productivity and employment in SAR.
Figure 5.26 Drivers of productivity growth in SAR.
Figure 5.27 Policy challenges in SAR.
Figure 5.28 Productivity prospects in SAR.
Figure 5.29 Constraints to productivity growth in SAR.
Figure 5.30 Productivity in SSA in regional comparison.
Figure 5.31 Evolution of labor productivity growth in SSA.
Figure 5.32 Sectoral productivity growth in SSA.
Figure 5.33 Drivers of productivity growth in SSA.
Figure 5.34 Prospects for productivity growth in SSA.
Figure 6.1 Global labor productivity surges and declines.
Figure 6.2 Decomposition of labor productivity variation.
Figure 6.3 Contribution of cyclicality to labor productivity slowdown.
Figure 6.4 Productivity effects of technology shocks.
Figure 6.5 Employment effects of technology developments.